Official 2020 Election Prediction

Biden is in a strong position heading into election day. As of this writing, FiveThirtyEight's election forecast gives Trump a 10% chance of winning, far less than the 28% chance he had in 2016. RealClearPolitics' average of polls has Biden leading Trump by a formidable 7.9 percentage points—Hillary Clinton led in this metric in 2016 by only 3.2%. The generic ballot currently has the Democrat leading by 8.3 points.

Crucially, The Standard anticipates that Trump will win the battleground states of Florida and Ohio, but lose Pennsylvania. Even if Trump out-performs the polls in Pennsylvania by 1%, as he did in 2016, Biden is still comfortably ahead there. We aren't likely to get the results from Pennsylvania on election night, but The Standard expects Biden to win even without it, thanks to wins in Arizona and North Carolina. Biden should be declared the winner around 10:15 Eastern time.

Best Case Scenario for Biden

Biden has the potential to romp in this election, conceivably winning the battleground states of Florida (where he currently holds a 1.2% lead in RealClearPolitics' polling average) and Ohio (where he and Trump are statistically tied.) This best case scenario for Biden isn't a landslide, however; The Standard expects Texas and Iowa, where some polls have shown Biden ahead, to remain red. Nonetheless, Biden wins in this scenario 353 to 185.

★ On Tuesday, if Florida goes blue, it will be an early sign of an exceptionally good night for Biden.

Best Case Scenario for Trump