Can Trump Still Win?

Can he? Yes. Will he? Let's be honest—it's highly unlikely. I know it's something of a taboo to say this; there is a great deal of collective trauma from Trump's unlikely win in 2016, and an understandable reluctance to trust the polls. A majority of Americans—56%—believe Trump will win.[1] But with less than 3 weeks to go until the election, Biden's lead is far, far beyond the margin of error, and there are a host of reasons to believe Biden will win. Here I'll present a few of those reasons, along with a handful of promising indicators for Trump, and, in my estimation, what the President might do to reverse his fortunes.

How Far Ahead is Biden?
As of this writing, RealClearPolitics' average of polls has Biden leading Trump by 9.2% nationally.[2] (No Presidential candidate has been this far ahead of their opponent since Bill Clinton's wipeout of George H.W. Bush in 1992, the last time an incumbent President lost re-election.[3]) In comparison, Hillary Clinton had a 3-percentage point lead over Trump in 2016. This year, FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 13% chance of winning, based on 40,000 simulations of the election.[4] Four years ago, that number was 28%.[5] A large majority—62%—feels that the country is on the "wrong track,"[6] traditionally a good predictor of the incumbent President's electoral fortunes. At this point, all lights are green for Biden.

But I Don't Trust The Polls
The national polls weren't wrong in 2016. Clinton led Trump by 3-points, and she won 48% of the popular vote to Trump's 46%.[7] Trump did win unexpectedly in several key states by razor-thin margins; in Pennsylvania, Winsconsin, and Michigan, he won by less than 1% of the vote, a spectacularly unlikely outcome. The polls were wrong in all three of those states, giving Clinton anywhere from a 3- to 5-point lead over Trump. But pollsters have adjusted their methodology since 2016, taking into account factors such as college education, which was a major determinative factor four years ago.[8]

And Biden's lead is much more formidable than Clinton's ever was. As of this writing, Biden leads Trump by 7-points in Pennsylvania, by 6.3-points in Wisconsin, and by 7.2-points in Michigan, according to RealClearPolitics' average of state polls, beyond the margin of error in each and every case. He even holds narrow leads over Trump in states that no Democrat has expected to win for decades, such as Georgia and Arizona. (I don't necessarily expect Biden to win these states, however; The Standard will be publishing an official prediction the weekend before the election.)

What About Voter Enthusiasm?
One of the few bright spots for Trump has been the enthusiasm of his supporters. 58% of them say they are "extremely enthusiastic" about voting for him, while only 48% of Biden supporters say the same.[9] But as I have written before, this supposed "enthusiasm gap" is a myth. That's because 80% of Democrats—a record-exploding number—are enthusiastic to vote this year. Over 4 million Americans have already voted,[10] and of those who have, 68% favor Biden to Trump's 29%.[9] Trump has enthused Democrats to vote far more than Biden, the "generic Democrat," has.

What Looks Good For Trump?
Trump's approval rating remains consistently ahead of his position in the national polls. 46% of Americans approve of his job performance[1], a five-month high. A slim majority—54%—approve of Trump's handling of the economy (even as 56% disapprove of his response to the coronavirus pandemic.[1]) Furthermore, problems with mail-in voting could benefit Trump. 48% of Biden voters say they are likely to vote by mail, compared to just 23% of Trump voters.[11] It's no surprise, then, that the Trump campaign is in courtrooms across America seeking to disqualify mail-in ballots on technicalities.

As the Washington Post notes, "More than 534,000 mail ballots were rejected during primaries across 23 states this year—nearly a quarter in key battlegrounds for the fall—illustrating how missed delivery deadlines, inadvertent mistakes and uneven enforcement of the rules could disenfranchise voters and affect the outcome of the presidential election."[12] As usual, Republicans benefit from fewer votes cast, and have even cast aspersions on "rank democracy" in recent days.[13] But I digress.

What Might Change?
It's hard to see Trump reversing these many problematic trends for him in just 3 weeks, but a strong performance in the only remaining debate on October 22nd could move some undecided voters in his direction. However, there are very few undecided voters this cycle, with 90% of Americans having "firmly made up their minds," and 70% saying the presidential debates are "not at all important" or "just somewhat important" in deciding who to vote for.[14] Trump would also need to improve significantly on his poorly-received first debate performance.

Conceivably, a coronavirus vaccine could lift the mood of the country in Trump's favor, but despite Trump anticipating a vaccine before election day, there's no sign of one becoming widely available until the middle of next year, at the earliest.[15] A new round of stimulus checks with Trump's name on them would come as a welcome relief to many Americans, but negotiations have stalled[16]—and it's unlikely checks could be mailed out in 3 weeks anyway.

Stay Tuned
Things aren't looking good for Trump, and we shouldn't be afraid to say so. Biden enjoys a commanding lead unseen for decades, and Trump has few prospects for turning things around with only 3 weeks remaining. But look for The Standard's official prediction the weekend before the election for a detailed, state-by-state forecast and electoral college estimate.

[1] https://news.gallup.com/poll/321347/trump-pre-debate-job-approval-highest-may.aspx
[2] https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
[3] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/25/heres-how-bidens-polling-lead-over-trump-compares-with-past-presidential-races.html
[4] https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
[5] https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
[6] https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/direction_of_country-902.html
[7] https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2016.pdf
[8] https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-pollsters-have-changed-since-2016-and-what-still-worries-them-about-2020/
[9] https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/10/14/lot-happened-week-election-horserace-nearly-unchan
[10] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-early-vote/more-than-4-million-americans-have-already-voted-suggesting-record-turnout-idUSKBN26R1LR
[11] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/08/18/election-2020-biden-voters-twice-likely-vote-mail-survey-finds/3394795001/
[12] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/rejected-mail-ballots/2020/08/23/397fbe92-db3d-11ea-809e-b8be57ba616e_story.html
[13] https://www.businessinsider.com/gop-sen-mike-lee-says-rank-democracy-bad-for-america-2020-10
[14] https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/09/20/poll-finds-11-of-voters-still-undecided-as-election-nears/#4e2f882a2eed
[15] https://fortune.com/2020/09/04/trump-vaccine-election-day-race/
[16] https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/10/11/21511519/senate-republicans-new-covid-relief-bill-election-day