There's a statistic that measures how well an unnamed, hypothetical Democrat polls against an unnamed, hypothetical Republican. It's called the "generic ballot," and it's useful for measuring the mood of the country and how the parties are perceived relative to each other.
Joe Biden has been running as "an Obama-Biden Democrat," a rather nebulous, centrist concept that can mean many different things to different people. Compare this with progressive Democrats, who have well-understood policies on health care and climate change, or populist Democrats, who are concerned with the economic justice for the working class. Biden is neither of these. His strategy against Trump has been, thus far, to be the "generic Democrat," a platitudinous candidate of style over substance and few well-articulated policies, putting the "standard" in "standard bearer."
And it may be precisely the right strategy for him.
As of this writing, the generic Democrat is defeating the generic Republican by somewhere from 8 to 11 percentage points.[1] This is a formidable advantage—by comparison, in the 2016 election, the generic Democrat led the generic Republican 45.4% to 44.2%, a spread of 1.2 percentage points and within the margin of error.[2] But Hillary slightly over-performed the generic Democrat, winning 48.2% of the popular vote to Trump's 46.1%, a spread of 2.1%.[3] In other words, the polls weren't wrong, and the generic ballot was a good predictor in 2016.
(In fact, I did an analysis while I was bored at work today and I found that, for the 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016 elections, the generic ballot was off from the final popular vote by an average of only 2.45%, comparable to the margin of error in most presidential polls.)
As of this writing, Biden leads Trump in most opinion polls by roughly 8 to 11 percentage points, effectively the same as the generic Democrat. Needless to say, this lead is expected to narrow as we get closer to election day, but these numbers are very promising for Biden as long as he continues to identify himself as the "generic Democrat." And so far, that's exactly what he's done. Consider these passages from Biden's acceptance speech at the Democratic convention last week:[4]
"Character is on the ballot. Compassion is on the ballot. Decency, science, democracy—they're all on the ballot. Who we are as a nation, what we stand for, and most importantly, who we want to be—that's all on the ballot."
"We can choose the path of becoming angrier, less hopeful, and more divided. A path of shadow and suspicion. Or we can choose a different path, and together, take this chance to heal, to be reborn, to unite. A path of hope and light."
"It's a moment that calls for hope and light and love. Hope for our futures, light to see our way forward, and love for one another."
It feels good, but it gives no zero idea of how he will actually govern. Biden scrupulously avoids any contentious issues like abortion or gun control, focusing his speech instead on the economy, health care, and the coronavirus pandemic—three of the top four issues for voters in this election.[5] In each case, he speaks soothingly to voters' anxieties about these issues without any troublesome specifics about how he would actually improve upon them. The choice is framed entirely as a generic Democratic alternative to Trump's abysmal record on these three issues.
Favorability is also important to an aspiring generic Democrat. In 2016, 43% of voters—including 51% of independents—had "very unfavorable" views of Clinton, compared to just 35% and 31%, respectively, who feel the same way about Biden.[6] Another important demographic is voters who dislike both candidates; in 2016, Clinton trailed Trump by 17 percentage points among these voters, while Biden currently has a stark 29-point lead.[7]
(How much of this discrepancy is due to sexism, or simply to Clinton's long and, at times, ignominious career in American politics, we’ll never know. Unspoken in all of this is that the "generic Democrat" is probably a man, and Clinton's sex undoubtedly put her at a disadvantage with some voters. My own dad, before he passed, confessed to me that he had sexist attitudes towards Hillary Clinton that he found difficult to change, and if those attitudes can exist in an otherwise forward-thinking progressive such as himself, then it's probably more widespread in the electorate than we'd prefer to believe.)
Joe Biden's generic Democrat persona will face its greatest test in the debates, as nice-sounding platitudes simply won't fill an hour-and-a-half of television time. Biden will be obliged to articulate and defend his positions with facts, something he hasn't done thus far in the campaign, and wasn't good at doing in the primary debates, either. It's here that he stands the most to lose with a shaky performance against Trump. Currently, the numbers are heavily in Biden's favor, but all of that can change as Trump tries—so far unsuccessfully—to define Biden not as the generic Democrat, but as the camel's nose of socialism.
Biden will need to deflect these attacks effectively, and we’ll begin to see at the first debate on September 29th whether that’s something he’s able to do or not.
[1] https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/
[2] https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/generic-ballot/
[3] https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2016.pdf
[4] https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/20/politics/biden-dnc-speech-transcript/index.html
[5] https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/08/13/important-issues-in-the-2020-election/
[6] https://morningconsult.com/2020/08/11/biden-trump-clinton-favorability-2020-polling/
[7] https://morningconsult.com/2020/07/07/2020-election-biden-trump-haters-polling/